Posted by: plinius on: oktober 14, 2006
Czy wystarczy miejsca dla bibliotek? Funkcje biblioteki w sieciowym swiecie / Wide enough for libraries? The library function in a web-based world. In Kocojowa, Maria (ed.). Professional information on the internet / Profesjonalna informacja w internecie. Krakow: Jagiellonian University Press, 2005, p. 13-25.
The paper discusses the consequences of the web for the library as an institution over the next thirty years (2005-2035). We conclude that physical and virtual library services are likely to diverge. The physical library is threatened. Traditional services like document provision and reference work will largely move to the web. The physical library of the future must offer space for other activities that society will be willing to finance: systematic learning, cultural events, social integration, creative play or productive work. On the web virtual libraries and web-based librarians face strong competition from other institutions and professions. Both the physical and the virtual library will have to redefine their social roles. To prosper, libraries must find new partners and build new alliances – in education, culture, production and community work.
Terms: Future studies, scenarios, library strategies, digital libraries, virtual libraries
Libraries are cultural institutions with a technological basis. Libraries collect, store, organize and make available written documents. Documents are public goods: my reading does not compete with your reading of the same book – except just before exams. The general role of libraries, in the social division of labor, is to increase the value of documents by multiplying access. The economic rationality is obvious: libraries facilitate the widest possible use of humanity’s written record.
Libraries as we know them belong to the industrial age. From the very beginning printed books were standardized, mass-produced objects. In many ways print was an industrial revolution – prefiguring the age of industry in the 19th and early 20th century. Books and periodicals on paper will hardly disappear. Print is a cheap, flexible and sophisticated technology for storing and distributing information. It ought to be, since it builds on more than five hundred years of trial, error, and innovation. But web publishing is even cheaper, even more flexible, and allows forms of reading (interaction with text) that go far beyond the possibilities of paper.
In the long run, web-based documents will play a greater role in our lives than documents on paper. In our personal life stories, the transition may seem slow. But in a historical perspective, it is exceptionally fast.
Fourteen years ago Tim Berners-Lee and Robert Caillau (1990) submitted their proposal for a hypertext project to CERN. The rest is history. The early web was created as a tool for technical communication. Its first target group was scientists, engineers and administrators in high-energy physics. But the number of users soon exploded. By the turn of the century close to three hundred million people were using the web at least once a month. The social impact of the web was still low. But politicians, executives and opinion leaders were watching carefully. What would happen next? What would the web mean in business, in public administration, in trade and in education?
Since 1990, computers and web technology have continued their rapid development. The famous law that George Moore (1965) formulated remains valid. The storage capacity and the processing speed of computers are still doubling every 18 months. This means that computer power multiplies by a factor of 1,000 every fifteen years. Such a rate of technological growth is unique in history. To illustrate, let us apply Moore’s law to cars. In 1965, an ordinary family car could easily carry four persons and a dog at a speed of 100 kms per hour. In 2010, the corresponding vehicle would be able to transport one hundred families at the speed of light. Dogs included.
Today, the web dominates business development in many countries. The digital consumer market flourishes. The market is driven by faster data transfer (broadband), cheaper storage media, higher mobility and richer multimedia (digital sound and video). All digital devices become smaller, lighter and more powerful. Networks become faster, cheaper and more mobile. All media are converging.
Convergence means that cell phones, digital cameras, MP3 players, e-books and other portable devises fuse with laptops and personal digital assistants (PDAs). We end up with mobile multipurpose wireless computers that can be carried around like paperbacks. But they can access the web as a whole. The web is visibly changing the way we do business. It is starting to change the way we do education. It is likely to change the way we conduct politics.
I use the term intelligence to describe the stage after convergence. Tim Berners-Lee (2001) calls it the semantic web. Intelligence is the ability to gather, to process and to act on complex information. Intelligent interfaces will accept speech and handwriting as well as keyboard entry. Intelligent programs are able to guess what people want to do, even if their input is fuzzy. It will correct obvious misprints – `get me a thicket to Paris`. If the traveler speaks with a Texan drawl, it may ask for clarification: – `would you like to go to Paris in France, or to Paris, Texas? `
HTML was originally created as a mark-up language for technical report-writing. Since the early nineties it has been stretched and pulled to cope with many other tasks. But many user communities need documents with much more structural information than naked HTML can provide. Intelligent technologies for the web represent an area of active research, development and demonstrations. Major topics are language technology, document coding and pattern recognition.
XML, topic maps and ontologies will allow much more complex processes on the web – see Garshol (2004). Web agents (robots) will be able to find, combine and present information in new ways. Today, programs manipulate sequences of symbols, but do not relate them in terms of meaning. Computers recognize that “cats” and “dogs” each have four characters. But it does not “know” that they are traditional enemies.
Oslo Public Library answered this question a couple of years ago: `I need a list of grocery stores in Sunnmøre [a region on the west coast of Norway], with their dates of establishment. It should be ordered by municipality`. On the semantic web, students should be able to find such types of information by themselves. But the systems that would allow them to do so must of course be developed, documented and maintained.
Mature technologies do not demand attention. I am not surprised when water runs from my tap and light pours from my lamp. We accept their presence without thinking. It takes a real mental effort to remember the planning, the dedication, and the hard work that carries water, gas and electricity into our houses. We live in a world of industrial magic. And we take the magic for granted. This is utterly normal. Human beings can only be aware of a few objects at a time. In life, we have to focus – on goals and on obstacles. The rest of the universe must hide in the bushes.
Good tools offer no resistance. Tools that offer no resistance turn transparent. When I read, I do not look at my glasses. I look through my glasses. Today the web is sometimes transparent and sometimes foggy. I have learnt to treat it as a sparring partner. If I dance like a butterfly, it stings like a bee. If I kick like a horse, it bites like a crocodile. I learn a lot, but the cost is high. But as the web matures, it will turn from boxer to butler. My daily struggles with software, interfaces and stupid peripherals will end. Three star restaurants illustrate what I want: smooth, instant, impeccable service.
I expect the web to reach this stage fifteen or twenty years from now. It will turn safe, dull and ordinary. It will become ubiquitous, like air. Weber spoke about the routinization of charisma. As a Webber I speak about the routinization of technology. If you want a more detailed picture of the web in 2035, you can turn to science fiction. Writers like Gibson (1986, 1987, 2000) and Stephenson (1993, 1995) describe a great variety of digital futures. But the web is always taken for granted. Looking ahead, we may distinguish three different user generations.
The people born around 1945 went to school in the fifties and early sixties. The public libraries had no computers and no OPACs. To locate books, we consulted imposing card catalogues. I was an eager reader, but I do not remember a school library. They existed but played no role in teaching. At university I frequented both the central university library, and the institute libraries that were devoted to particular subjects like philosophy or chemistry. I also spent time with computers at the Norwegian Computing Centre. But I never saw a computer at the library. Books and computers lived in different worlds.
With time, we graduated – and got jobs; married – and got families. As a statistician, I kept in contact with computing technology. But to most of my peers, ICT was a matter of print, paper and telephones. Data was seen as technical specialty: leave it to the experts! But as we approached forty, computers began to infiltrate our life-worlds. The personal computer replaced the type-writer – and the typists. The organization of office work changed. We protested – but in vain. The typing pool went down the drain. For the pre-web generation, the office PC was the first digital shock. We survived and moved on. But the gods of technology sent the personal computer as a warning. The next invasion was larger, deeper and much more pervasive.
My generation approached fifty when Berners-Lee released the World Wide Web. A few of us were excited by the new technology. In 1992 we started teaching HTML to librarians – but only in a further education course. At my faculty it took a decade for information architecture and web publishing to be accepted within the regular curriculum.
Now we are sixty. The generation of 45 is willing to use the web in a small way. We surf a bit, read e-mail and buy cinema tickets on the web. But working habits are hard to change. The majority of my peers are consumers of web services rather than web producers. My generation grew up with Gutenberg and looks forward to retirement. Why should they spend the few working years that remain in uphill struggles with new technology? Employers accept their reluctance and leave them in peace. But this only applies to the oldest cohort. I belong to the last generation that can choose to abstain.
The people who were born around 1975 grew up without computers. In the eighties the PC was still an office phenomenon. Only a few enthusiasts brought computers into their homes. The same was true for schools. The generation of 75 only discovered the web in the late nineties, when government, banks and business started to take notice. But they did not protest and they did not hide. They know the web is inevitable. Next year, the first web generation turns thirty. For this cohort the web is already a normal component of normal lives. They send and receive hundreds of e-mails a month. They buy computers for themselves and for their kids. They upgrade to ISDN and ADSL as a matter of routine.
The 1975 cohort arrived just in time to catch the big wave. They will spend the next thirty years riding it. Some will be fast on the uptake and some a bit slower. Every generation has early and late adopters. But as a group they will embrace the new technology.
People typically reach the summit of their careers between fifty and sixty. In 2035 senior decision makers in business, government and education will be drawn from the first web generation. Digital technology will have shaped their lives. Their daily routines – at work and play – will be digital. If you really want to know a field, you must become a producer. Consumers stay on the surface. The first web generation will understand e-business, e-learning and e-culture from the inside – because they were present at the creation. They made it.
The second web generation is the children and inheritors of the first. They will be born next year. At the moment they only exist in the minds of their parents or the wombs of their mothers. The generation of 2005 will grow up in deeply digital world. At home, they will encounter broadband connections, computer games and videos-on-demand. At school, all subjects will involve ICT. Parents, friends and the web itself can always be reached by mobile phone. Their web will be able to speak and listen. Computer-generated persons (avatars) will answer frequently answered questions (FAQs) – and pass more difficult queries on to real human beings.
For us, such facilities still seem glamorous. For the youngsters, they will be as ordinary as light bulbs. They do not remember a time when the web was not. The first web generation is aware of the step from print to screen. The second generation takes the web for granted.
To survive and flourish, libraries must serve the users of the future. But the term “user” is too broad. In order to grasp specific needs and trends we must look at specific groups of users. Personally, I find the following user categories helpful: (1) learners – or people who use libraries in connection with formal education; (2) citizens – or people who use libraries in their free time, for individual or communal purposes; (3) professionals – or people who use the libraries as part of their (paid) work. The three groups may overlap. Many professionals are enrolled in formal education programs. And at home, as individuals, learners and professionals are also citizens. The groups do not consist of individuals as such, but of individuals that fill specific roles.
In 2015, adult users of libraries will come from the first generation. Young users of libraries will come from the second. Both generations will lead busy lives. A multitude of activities will compete for their attention. How can libraries continue to be relevant to these people?
At any one time, a large proportion of the population is engaged in formal learning activities. A reasonable estimate for Norway in the years after 2010 can be: 16% of the population at school and 5% in higher education.
Formal education has been changing for several decades, from a receptive, teacher-centered towards an active, student-centered approach. The traditional system was described by the Brazilian educator Paulo Freire (1972) as the “piggy-bank” model. Teachers were seen as repositories of knowledge. Education meant the gradual transfer of knowledge from the brain of the teacher to the brain of the student.
The new system is focused on learning rather than on teaching. As teachers, our main task is to promote learning activities. This does not mean that we never lecture or never grade tests. But it means that we have a broader understanding of what goes on in our classes. We draw on a wider set of teaching tools. We design environments and processes that encourage students to learn.
Learning is still hard work. `Ultimately, real education must be limited to those who insist on knowing`, says T.S. Eliot. But the new model is much more aware of learning as delight. Humans are naturally curious and inventive. Mastering new levels of skill, and tackling completely new subjects, can give learners a sense of power. Student-centered teaching calls on the joy of mastery – and reduces the amount of external control to a minimum.
I choose the term “citizen” for people that consult libraries for their own personal purposes. In our spare time, released from the demands of school and work, we all become citizens. European public libraries are libraries for citizens. The institution serves the community as a whole, not schools and businesses as such.
In addition to its primary task, the library may also assist school children, students and professionals. But the central category of users remains people that pursue their own interests, by themselves or in association with others. Typical subgroups are defined by normal stages of life, e.g.: (1) young children – who mainly use the library together with their parents; (2) older children, or pre-teens – who are able to use the library on their own: (3) teenagers; (4) young adults – without children of their own; (5) young parents – who often use the library together with their kids; and finally (6) older adults.
Individual users have library careers. If they grow up in bookish families, they may visit libraries before they can walk. They will play with toys and look at picture books. Older children tend to be intensive library users. In adolescence, many boys turn to other activities. Reading is for sissies. But girls continue to explore imaginary worlds through books. The gender gap continues into early adulthood. We must also remember that many people and some families never use the library at all.
The people that use libraries in connection with their work are the group we know least about. Today, more than 40% – but less than half – of the labor force work in occupations that require higher education skills. The number of people who take higher education continues to increase. After 2020, more than 60% of the labor force will probably have completed some form of higher education. The professionals will be a majority, and the non-professionals a minority, in the working population.
Libraries at work constitute the most exposed group. The change brought by the web threatens the special libraries first. There are very few libraries in the private sector. The libraries in the public sector are under increasing economic pressure. A few have already been closed. Top managers ask pointed questions. What do they contribute? Can their services be dispensed with?
able 1. Access to library services. Norway 2002.
|
||||
|
Context: |
Higher |
Schools |
Communities |
Work places |
|
Persons per staff member** |
240 |
820 |
2 400 |
3 000 |
|
User group |
Students and |
Pupils and |
All inhabitants |
Professionals |
|
Loans per user |
15 |
6,4 |
5,2 |
0,6 |
| Computed from official library statistics. Sources: Norwegian Archive, Library and Museum Authority and Central Bureau of Statistics. *Estimate. **Full time equivalents. | ||||
But all libraries need to look at their basic support. Today all educational institutions and all municipalities in Norway provide dedicated library services. Access and use is best in higher education (Table 1). Schools differ widely in the quality and utilization of their libraries. The same is true for local communities. But who will be around thirty years from now?
I assume the trend towards student-centered teaching will continue at all levels of education, from kindergarten to doctoral programs. As an educational trend, this development started in the 1960`s, long before the World Wide Web was born. But the Web supports the trend towards active learning. A PC can provide nearly all the working tools that active learners need: (1) a variety of communication channels: e-mail, discussion groups, interactive web pages; (2) a wide range of information sources; and (3) a vast set of production tools: presentation programs, word processors, spreadsheets, web editors, graphic editors…
But important obstacles remain. Many students and most teachers have yet to master the necessary tools. Schools and colleges have accepted e-mail, but struggle with more advanced communication systems. On the production side, basic word processing is current. But spreadsheets (Excel), web editors (Dreamweaver) and graphics editors (PhotoShop) are only tackled by a minority of teachers and learners.
A more serious problem derives from the very nature of the web. WWW is wonderfully free and open. It is the most democratic medium ever invented. On the web, every person can be her own publisher. The down side is the lack of quality control. Printing is expensive, so printed publications go through processes of submission, selection and editing before they are released on the public. Most web publishing is pure samizdat.
The majority of teachers will only embrace the web when it can challenge print as a technology for learning. Effective web-based learning requires dedicated web sites. Web teaching must be able to compete with the best modern textbook. We must create deep and rich learning environments – not a jungle of the good, the bad, and the awful. If the content is good, the teachers will come.
School libraries have both a physical and a virtual aspect. Schools are likely to remain as physical institutions. But the new learning environment will be richer and more flexible. Many libraries in teaching institutions are changing their names to learning centers. Many librarians are attached to the old term and oppose the change. But in terms of strategy I believe the re-labeling is correct.
The central task of schools is learning. The school library can play a central role in the transition from a teacher-centered to student-centered approach. In the digital environment, physical collections will gradually become less important. Libraries can offer a dedicated space for individuals and groups that work with information and media. But it is crucial that the library should be more than a place where resources are stored. It must also be a place where resources are actively used. .
Libraries must attach themselves tightly to the new processes of learning. Students who work with sources (in the widest sense) will need spaces where they can pursue many different learning activities: read, watch and listen; compare, discuss and evaluate: write, compose and edit. If such spaces can be created within libraries, they are likely to prosper. If not, the physical school library may wither and die. Media rooms, workshops and group rooms will take its place. Resource-based learning will go on as before. But it will be supported and supervised by people from other professions.
The great majority of subjects in higher education are based on written documents and verbal discussion. In the humanities and social sciences, students work in a textual universe. They listen to lectures that expound the canon – and learn the canonical methods of research. They work with textbooks and classical texts. And they contribute texts of their own – for the benefit of their teachers, their fellow students and their final grades. In the sciences, field trips and lab work are added. But science students continue to read and write.
This will continue in the digital environment. This means that texts and documents remain relevant for undergraduate learning. But undergraduate libraries are in the same position as school libraries: they must attach themselves firmly to teaching and learning activities in order to survive. A great tradition is not enough. In the future, libraries for students will only be financed if they provide a visible contribution to learning.
Undergraduate students go to standardized lectures and carry out standardized exercises. Student behavior is largely shaped by the teachers. The average student aims at an acceptable grade. She hopes to achieve it with a modicum of effort. She will only use the library if it pays to use the library. And this is normally decided by the teacher. But university teachers are acrobats. They will only cooperate with librarians if they must. Every day they juggle the demands from classes, colleagues and conferences. They are seldom interested in libraries as such. They will only include libraries in their juggling act if the benefit is evident.
Libraries must cooperate with teachers in designing digital learning environments. This is a new and difficult task for both professions. At the moment I suspect teachers are more uncomfortable with digital resources.
Undergraduates can be handled as a group. In graduate and further education, students work in smaller groups and go to fewer lectures than their younger peers. They study the more advanced literature in their professional fields and are expected to write papers and theses based on independent work. Some of their projects will involve original data collection, and some of their reports will include original research.
These students require a great variety of written sources. In a couple of decades, nearly all the relevant documents are likely to be on the web. But they will need good retrieval tools in order to find the documents they require. The lecturer is normally a specialist in the field and will select the curriculum on the basis of her personal knowledge of the literature. But the library can provide useful support by organizing easy web access to all the readings – and by providing correct and updated bibliographical data.
At the graduate level, libraries must offer individual service. In 9 cases out of 10 the students will be under pressure to complete their work in time. In contact with the library they will need rapid, competent and highly specific service.
As citizens we use libraries in two different ways: as a source of documents and as a physical meeting place. In the past, the two functions went together. The physical library was a place for books as well as for people. Today, the roads diverge. As citizens, we want access to a great variety of texts. Some we use to relax, some we use to reflect and some we use as tools in our many tasks and projects. The general demand for documents is likely to go up rather than down.
But in 2035, we can safely assume that most documents in wide use will be available in digital form, on the World Wide Web. Novels constitute the big exception. When people speak about public libraries they often refer to novels. And it is quite true that the novel is important. In Norway, fiction – mainly novels – constituted nearly 50% of all loans in 2002. The remaining 50% were divided equally between non-fiction books (25%) and multimedia products (25%).
But if we only consider novels, we will underestimate the movement towards the web. Current PCs are not suitable for novels. Novels are meant for sustained reading. The novel is a conservative genre. Novels in book form are likely to be with us for a long time. But multimedia and non-fiction genres are moving rapidly from physical to virtual form.
Citizens are interested in a great variety of documents (Table 2). This will surely continue. Public libraries must move their non-fiction services to the web in order to survive as general document providers. On the web they will face competition from other virtual providers: publishers, book stores, schools, web portals and government institutions.
Table 2. Documents in daily life |
|||
|
Fiction |
Non-fiction |
Web and multimedia |
|
| Comics Fairy tales Novels Picture books Plays Poems Short stories Songs (text) |
Biographies Calendars Dictionaries Directories Encyclopedias Essays Instruction manuals Magazines Maps Media reviews |
Music (sheet) Newspapers Photos Public documents Recipes Self-help manuals Product reviews Rules and regulations Time tables Travel information Weather information |
Audio books Chat channels Computer games Documentaries (video) Home pages Instruction videos Language courses (audio) Language courses (video) Movies Music (audio) Music (video) Radio programs Television programs Web portals |
To play a major role in the virtual environment, public libraries must build on their particular strengths: (1) community building: they know how to document their own local communities; (2) knowledge organization: they know how to organize large numbers of documents for retrieval: (3) price: they are free of charge.
As community organizations, public libraries have a valuable role in documenting local history and culture. But they must be willing to share that role with local archives and museums. On the web, the traditional distinction between printed documents, archive documents and museum objects disappears. The web recognizes only one type of entity: the digital file. As organizers of virtual knowledge, public libraries transcend the local level. The web serves everybody. On the web it seems reasonable to ask for national services – managed by national library networks. Or global services – managed by global networks. Restricting services to particular user groups seems artificial.
Public libraries could, in principle, play a role without special buildings that are open to the public. The Internet Public Library (2004) is an example. But public libraries that are financed locally, by local authorities, need tangible links to the electorates.
Future citizens will take the web and all its services for granted. Why should they spend time visiting libraries? But our citizens still want to meet friends and neighbors face to face. They have shopping, and errands and hobbies. There are problems to solve and promises to keep. The library can be a meeting-place, where people go to talk and plan and study together. This means a library with space for groups and group work. But libraries cannot replace parks, schools, clubs or cafes. They must have their own profile and identity. The meeting function must relate to the document function.
The library can also be the space you visit in the middle of your shopping. It can be a place to retreat, relax and recuperate – a home away from home. This means a library with space for noisy children and quiet reading. It means coffee. Marx would have said: the library is a place for reproduction. But since Marx is largely forgotten, people could misunderstand the term. The retreat function must also relate to the document function.
Special libraries serve the people that work in knowledge occupations. But the role of libraries is much more limited at work than in education and community life. I describe people with higher education as professionals. In Norway they constitute 40% of the labor force, or about 900 000 persons. But our special libraries had only 34 000 registered users in 2002. This means that only four percent of the professionals are library customers at work. This suggests that most of them get the information they want from other sources.
In one or two decades, the number of professionals may increase from 40 to 60% of the labor force. At the same time, the economic importance of knowledge will increase. In a fully developed knowledge economy, the demand for accurate, wide-ranging, personalized information will be very high indeed. But professionals are not interested in the library as a physical space. They want user-friendly information services at their desks or at their palm tops. If libraries can deliver what they need – fine. If not, somebody else will step in.
During the next thirty years, our organizations will be reshaped by digital technology. The primary concerns of societies – education, work and social integration – will not change. But in 2035 they will be managed in deeply digital environments. Many traditional functions are moving away from the physical library. The web has its own logic. In order to prosper, virtual services must be organized on a large scale. Many reference and delivery services are taken over by new information firms. On the web libraries must network and go virtual if they want to compete.
In order to survive the transformation from paper to data, all libraries must look at their ultimate purpose. The industrial age is past. Their old contracts with society are running out of steam. The digital age is knocking on the door. In the digital environment libraries will need new social contracts. The web is wide enough for everybody. But they must offer services that their owners and constituencies are willing to pay for. The prescription is brief, but radical: the library institution must recreate itself.
